This coming weekend

[jcambert]

Oren, I think that the Italian Job is opening in 2600 theaters. Keep in mind that, in order for it to break $30 mil, which it certainly won't, it would have to do more than $11,500 per theater, on the weekend after Memorial day, which, notoriously, isn't the greatest of movie weekends. I am going to estimate, in a preliminary manner, that this film will average $6,000 to $7,500 per theater, putting it in the $15 mil to $20 mil range. I would expect that to be about right.

As for Finding Nemo, it's opening in 3200 theaters, and, I would expect it to do $17,500 to $20,000 per theater, putting it in the $56mil to $64mil range.

Any thoughts?

JP

 

[Gillian]

Hi Jcambert,

what you said sounds good. I'm curious...

How do you go about calculating your per theater totals? I need to learn.

Gil

 

[Oren1]

heh, I usually let other people do the theater count estimate work for me and surf the mesage boards... So far most people are thinking low numbers for IJ, 16-20, but I think with the positive buzz it will get from the good reviews so far it might push it up to a high as 24. Hard to say. Finding Nemo, I don't know, 63 million? It's getting positive reviews as well, and I think people have been digging the previews.

 

[Oren1]

Some people found it hard to believe that the final theater count for Nemo would be as low as 3200, but maybe Disney or whoever knows this thing won't be as big as their previous films. Or maybe we're just coming back to earth after the recent record-setting theater counts... MOnsters Inc did around 62, but I think Nemo has a chance to match that number with the currrent price-gouging happening at theaters. But, a lot of people are thrwing out lower numbers. I'm kind of torn, while the movie looks good to me, and it's got Disney and Pixar stamped on it, I'm not convinced the kids are going to be as hyped for a movie about fish as they were for toys, bugs, and monsters.

 

[Oren1]

heh, Bodog always has some <interesting> lines, he's got Italian Job over 27 at 4/5. WTF? No one is predicting anything over 27. No <expert> preds out as far as I know of as of yet... There must be suckers out there that will just bet on a prop merely becasue it's the favorite.

 

[Oren1]

he's also got Finding Nemo over 60 at 4/5. I'm not ready to jump on this one as of yet...

 

[Oren1]

Gil, Intertops is on to you man, their over 65 is only 2.5! They must have gottne burned on Bruce Almighty's surprising weekend. I guess 57-64.9 is the way to go here, but I'm afraid of getting burned again and having it go over.

 

[Oren1]

Over 60 for finding Nemo is starting to look pretty good.